The future of climate and water availability in the Murray–Darling Basin: Sustainable Yields report

basin_matters Published 01 Dec 2025

The Murray–Darling Basin Authority has released its Sustainable Yields 2025 report. It reveals that the Basin is virtually certain to become hotter, with runoff and water availability likely to continue declining, particularly in the south. The report presents three plausible climate scenarios for around 2030 and 2050, showing that droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe, while under current water management arrangements, the impacts would be greatest on downstream users and non-entitlement water. Built on the latest climate science and significantly improved modelling since the 2009 assessment, this comprehensive analysis is critical for informing the 2026 Basin Plan Review and ensuring water management strategies remain robust and adaptive. 

Read the full report to understand what these changes mean for your community here.

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