Climate change is projected to decrease river flows by 20% in the Murray Darling Basin, however there is a wide range of uncertainty in how this will unfold. 

This project explores plausible changes to water supply across the southern basin, including spatial and temporal considerations that affect water allocations for irrigation and environmental water use and drive patterns of water trade. In this seminar we will present novel approaches to rapidly understand climate risks to water availability using “stress-testing”.  

While we will present results for the Southern Murray Darling Basin, we aim to highlight the benefits of communicating uncertainty in a way that informs decision making by both government agencies and consumptive users.  The overall aim of this project is to provide information about the reliability of different water entitlement products, possible future patterns of water trade, and entitlement robustness under variability and change.

The session will be presented by project leader Associate Professor Avril Hogan, and research fellow Dr Andrew John.