Predicting the impact of climate change on irrigation demand across the One Basin

Climate change may increase demand for irrigation water across the Murray–Darling Basin as higher temperatures and changes in rainfall interact to change crop irrigation requirements. This project aims to model the future irrigation needs of key crops in the Murray–Darling Basin under various climate change scenarios, which will help provide growers confidence they can supply their crops irrigation requirements to underwrite this investment.

About the project

Irrigated farming in the Murray–Darling Basin faces increasing challenges due to a warmer and drier climate. With water supply decreasing and irrigation demand rising, farmers need better insights into future water needs to sustain their crops and investments. Understanding these changes is crucial for medium to long-term planning and for making informed decisions about crop choices and water sourcing.

This project aims to model the future irrigation needs of key crops in the Murray–Darling Basin under various climate change scenarios. By examining how crop water requirements might change, the project will help farmers and irrigation suppliers plan for a future with higher temperatures and less water. 

The focus is on four to five major irrigated crops, including cotton, grapes, almonds, and rice. 

The project will undertake a number of different activities:

1. Data collection and modelling: The project will use existing climate, soil, and crop data to calculate potential changes in irrigation demand. This will involve integrating large-scale data with regional knowledge to ensure accurate and relevant outputs.
2. Stakeholder engagement: Workshops and interviews with growers, irrigation trusts, and experts will refine the model and ensure it meets user needs. These interactions will also help identify practical management practices and adaptation strategies.
3. Geospatial analysis: The project will use geospatial tools to map irrigation requirements across different regions and time periods. This will include projections for three future periods and two climate scenarios, providing a comprehensive view of potential changes.
4. Reporting and tools: The outcomes will include an online tool for evaluating irrigation demand and detailed reports on brine disposal options, case studies, and future investment opportunities. This information will support growers in making sustainable and profitable decisions.

Outcomes

This project is expected to provide:

• a better understanding of future irrigation demands for major crops in the Murray–Darling Basin
• an online tool to help farmers assess and plan for future water needs
• reports summarizing case studies, brine disposal options, and investment prospects
• enhanced decision-making support for growers, irrigation suppliers, and water planners.

By providing these insights, the project will help ensure the sustainability and profitability of irrigated agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin under changing climate conditions.