The Performativity of Future Imaginaries through Water Models in Transboundary Water Conflict

This thesis examines the role of “future imaginaries”—defined as collectively held visions of a desirable future—in the modelling process.

About this project

Imagined futures dictate present actions, raising critical questions about whose visions inform water decisions and how models legitimize certain pathways. Employing document analysis and interviews with modelers and decision makers, and using thematically analyzing method, this research explores how future imaginaries “perform” through water models. It considers modelling as unfolding across three stages: pre-production, production, and post-production. Focusing on the case of the Murray– Darling Basin and the Sustainable Diversion Limits (SDLs), the study investigates how shared visions of the future have shaped each stage of this process. In the pre-production stage, the thesis asks which underlying future imaginaries informed the 2012 and 2026 Basin Plans in MDB. In the production stage, it explores what type of desirable future has informed the SDL modelling process. Finally, in the post-production stage, it examines how modellers and policymakers interpreted and translated model outputs into the final SDL number, and what forms of evidence informed their evidence-based decision-making process. 

Outcomes

The study will figure out: (1) what are historical future imaginaries in Murray–Darling Basin; (2) how these imaginaries influence the construction and interpretation of water models.